DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/22 11:04
Grains Mixed at Midday
Flat to higher trade at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 40. The dollar index is 7
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude up
$0.95. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold
Corn trade is flat to 1 cents lower with early gains evaporating again with
harvest pressure and little fresh news. Harvest will expand with in some areas,
but will remain off the pace overall. Ethanol margins remain stable with the
energy complex moving into range-bound action. Basis remains flat to weaker
with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon with still pockets of localized
strength. South American looks to remain in the same weather pattern for now as
planting continues. Weekly crop progress showed the crop 86% mature vs. 97% on
average, with harvest 30% complete vs. 46% on average, and conditions at 56%
good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor. On the December contract support
is at the 20-day moving average at $3.87 which we are just below at midday;
with the 50-day at 3.76 the next level of support. Chart resistance is at the
10-day at $3.92, which we tested overnight.
Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher with trade snapping back to the upper end
of the range overnight with the recent pattern of good starts continuing, but
we have faded again as trade rumors remain unconfirmed. Meal is flat to $1.00
lower and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive,
along with trade remaining overbought. The real has firmed a bit to start the
week. Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll. South
America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the
months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind.
Weekly crop progress showed 54% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor,
with 94% dropping leaves vs. 97% on average, with 46% harvested vs. 64% on
average. On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $9.30 with the upper
Bollinger Band at 9.50 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with Minneapolis trade
leading again after early gains evaporate again. The Chicago/Kansas City
December spread is 98 cents with trade hitting new highs again to close last
week before narrowing slightly to start the week. Remaining spring wheat will
likely not be cut at this point with the northern weather issues. The corn/HRW
spread has widened back to 40 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working
wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea
origin, but those prices have firmed while Australia remains dry. Weekly crop
progress showed winter wheat planted at 77% vs. 71% on average, with 53%
emerged same as average. The December chart support is the 10-day at $4.22 with
the 100-day at 4.39 the next level up with the upper Bollinger band right at
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.