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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/28 11:05

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7 
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 9 to 21 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 7 
to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 9 to 21 cents lower. The U.S. stock market 
is weaker with the DOW off 240 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points 
higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are narrowly mixed with 
crude off .55 and natural gas off .18. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold off 12.00.


   Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with negative spillover from 
outside markets continuing to limit upside in the absence of broad fresh 
bullish news. The daily export wire will be watched to see if sales pick up 
again as we fade to the lower end of the range and come out of the holiday 
break with nothing Monday. Spread action is firmer ahead of March becoming the 
front month. Ethanol margins remain rangebound with corn values and driving 
demand expected to slow further until closer to Christmas travel. Basis has 
remained steady as transportation issues get worked on with the West starting 
to soften a bit in spots. Export inspections remained poor at 302,350 metric 
tons (mt). On the December chart, trade is solidly above the lower Bollinger 
Band at $6.46 with the fresh low at $6.52 3/4 just above that and the 20-day 
moving average above current action at $6.70.


   Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade remaining 
solidly rangebound with South American weather remaining mixed, and energy 
spillover limiting upside, along with Argentina export incentives. Meal is 
$3.50 to $4.50 higher, and oil is 70 to 80 points higher. Basis has held 
together well with little change in recent days. The daily export wire has been 
limited in recent days with China demand likely to be an ongoing concern with 
the continued shutdowns and unrest going forward. However, we did see 110,000 
mt sold to unknown Monday. Weekly export inspections softened a bit at 2.022 
million metric tons (mmt). On the January chart, trade is working just above 
the 20-day moving average at $14.39 with the Upper Bollinger Band above current 
action at $14.64, as well as the fresh high at $14.69, and further support the 
lower Bollinger Band at $14.14.


   Wheat futures are 9 to 21 cents lower with spring wheat leading at midday, 
and Chicago continuing to lag with the late washout Friday sustaining the 
oversold conditions nearby. The dollar fading from the highs should add some 
support if it continues short term. The Plains look to remain mostly dry short 
term with cooler and wetter potential the second week. Southern Hemisphere 
harvest will be moving forward soon with quality issues in Australia and 
drought losses in Argentina. Matif wheat remains at a bit bigger premium than 
usual with the slight pullback Monday. Weekly export inspections were soft at 
198,519 mt. On the chart, KC December action has faded below the 20-day moving 
average at $9.44 and the lower Bollinger band at $9.03 is further support where 
we find the fresh low at $8.98 scored Monday morning.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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