DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/19 11:19
Corn Flat, Soybeans Shooting Up Midday Tuesday
Corn is flat at midday after a mixed Tuesday morning; soybeans are 9 to 11
cents higher and wheat is 1 to 7 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140 points. The dollar index
is 0.22 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude
up $0.65. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle and cattle higher, hogs
lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $6.
Corn trade found light follow-through buying Tuesday morning, taking
December to $5.37, 30 cents higher than the post-October WASDE low printed last
Wednesday. But at midday, we are back to unchanged. Outside markets have stocks
higher, crude higher and the dollar lower. The sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact
market action since the WASDE last Tuesday may not continue to support a
bounce-back rally, considering the corn carryover was higher and we remain in
the middle of harvest. However, what could support a further rally is the
extremely good ethanol margins at this juncture. The weekly export inspections
were okay at 976k tons Monday morning. The weekly crop progress was listed at
52% versus the 41% five-year average, so the rain slowed harvest a little more
than some expected last week, but this week is pretty clear. USDA weekly crop
ratings were unchanged at 60% good to excellent with fair ratings increasing by
1% with very poor going down 1% to 4%. On the December contract, we have
support at the 200-day moving average at $5.20 with the $5.06 3/4 low last
Wednesday now a major support area. Chart resistance is at this morning's high
of $5.37, then the upper Bollinger Band at $5.46.
Soybean trade is 9 to 11 higher at midday with the post-WASDE recovery
continuing. Meal is up around $5 and bean oil up 0.10 cent. November beans
challenged the upside resistance at the 20-day moving average at $12.39, but we
are back a dime off that high at midday. The weekly export inspections were
very good at 2.3 million tons Monday, giving the market support Tuesday after
the late recovery on Monday. The weekly harvest progress was listed at 60%
versus the 55% five-year average with good progress expected this week. The
crop ratings were no longer provided due to the advance of harvest that ended
the year at 59% good to excellent on the report last Monday. On the November
soybean chart, support is at the recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at
the 20-day currently at $12.39.
Wheat trade is flat to 7 higher at midday with upward momentum appearing to
have stalled. The weekly export inspections were poor yesterday at only 140k
tons. The weekly crop progress has winter wheat plantings at 70% complete, 1%
slower than the five-year average. Wheat should find buying on pullbacks
following the bigger picture trend to friendlier domestic and world balance
sheets, but for Tuesday, profit taking by recent longs have stalled the
strength with futures around a dime off our daily highs. KC December chart
support is at the 20-day at $7.33 with resistance at the 10/4 high of $7.64.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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